Talks at Nordita Programs [before October 2010]
Solar cycle prediction
by
→
Europe/Stockholm
FA31
FA31
Description
The 11-year solar cycle is understood to be produced due to a complex
chain of processes (known as the dynamo cycle) involving non-linear
interactions between magnetic fields and plasma.
The solar magnetic cycle has considerable influence on anthropogenic activities like radio communication, aerospace, satellites etc. Hence arises the need to develop the capability of predicting future solar cycles correctly.
Is solar cycle prediction a realistic proposal? Whatever the case, whether the upcoming cycle 24 of solar activity will be strong or not is being hotly debated. I shall discuss how to model the last few solar cycles by ‘feeding’ observational data of the Sun’s polar magnetic field into our solar dynamo model.
Our results fit the observed sunspot numbers of cycles 21-23 extremely well and predict that cycle 24 will be about 40% weaker than cycle 23.
The solar magnetic cycle has considerable influence on anthropogenic activities like radio communication, aerospace, satellites etc. Hence arises the need to develop the capability of predicting future solar cycles correctly.
Is solar cycle prediction a realistic proposal? Whatever the case, whether the upcoming cycle 24 of solar activity will be strong or not is being hotly debated. I shall discuss how to model the last few solar cycles by ‘feeding’ observational data of the Sun’s polar magnetic field into our solar dynamo model.
Our results fit the observed sunspot numbers of cycles 21-23 extremely well and predict that cycle 24 will be about 40% weaker than cycle 23.