Polar Seesaw's; persistence, noise and stability -- Part II
by
John Wettlaufer(Nordita)
→
Europe/Stockholm
122:026
122:026
Description
Climate is the statistical description of the complex and nonlinear Earth system. It is controlled by solar energy input, longwave radiative output and the internal redistribution of energy by the atmosphere and the ocean. Of the 5PW excess energy input at low latitudes about two thirds is transferred poleward by the atmosphere and the remainder by the ocean. One can ascribe an energy budget to each subsystem and among these the polar regions are of particular interest due to their strong influence on the planetary albedo. Here I give an overview of the cogs and wheels in the polar subsystem of Earth's climate, our present capabilities in predicting its future state and then detail a low-order theory, it's stability, response time scales, bifurcation structure, critical slowing down and a stochastic treatment. N.B. Physicists are increasingly interested in climate science, as evidenced by the formation of a new American Physical Society Topical Group on the Physics of Climate. There are unique problems that as compelling as any in modern science particularly because of their societal interest and relevance.
