Forecasting the future, solar cycle 24 and grand challenges for time-domain astrophysics
by
MrAndreas Svedin(Columbia Univeristy)
→
Europe/Stockholm
FA31
FA31
Description
The solar cycle is the cyclic variation of solar activity, with a span of 9-14 years. The prediction of the solar cycle is an important and unsolved problem with implications for communications, aviation and other aspects of our high-tech society. We present the state of model based prediction in the context of the current cycle (solar cycle 24) and argue that the methods used have some fundamental challenges to overcome, and these have remained unsolved for decades. We present preliminary results using the Shadowing Filter – a recently developed method for non-linear data assimilation and outline a path towards model-based prediction of the solar cycle. Data assimilation is the art of comparing, combining and transferring observed data into a mathematical model or computer simulation. One of the main frontiers for discovery for the coming decade is time-domain astrophysics where the dynamical variation of signals is monitored continuously or recurrently. We argue that all these endeavors in time domain astrophysics can to some extent be regarded as aspects of data assimilation. The ultimate verification of a model is its ability to made accurate predictions of future events and this should be one of the main goals for time-domain astrophysics. [No previous knowledge of data assimilation is assumed. We will introduce and discuss the topic and its application.]
