by
Dibyendu Nandi(Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Kolkata)
→
Europe/Stockholm
122:026
122:026
Description
Four hundred years of sunspot observations starting with the
pioneering contributions of Galileo Galilei have established the
existence of the sunspot cycle. The solar activity cycle – known to be
a manifestation of the magnetic cycle of the Sun – governs
interplanetary space environmental conditions, impacts space-based
technologies and forces the Earth’s climate. The theoretical formalism
of the solar cycle is based on principles of magnetohydrodynamics
whose foundations were laid by the Swedish physicist and Nobel
laureate Hannes Alfvén . In spite of sustained efforts, predicting the
Sun’s activity, and hence its influence on our space environment and
climate has remained an outstanding challenge in astrophysics. In this
talk, I shall provide a basic introduction to the sunspot cycle and
demonstrate how universal concepts of non-linear dynamics, stochastic
fluctuations and dynamical memory has come together over the last
decade to reveal the physics of solar cycle predictability. Based on
our recent work I will also present a prediction of the amplitude and
timing of the next sunspot cycle and discuss its implications for
space-environmental conditions and solar forcing of climate over the
next decade.
