A model-free, data-based forecast for sunspot cycle 25

by Aleix Espuña-Fontcuberta (Nordita)

Wednesday 17 Jun 2020, 13:30 → 14:30 Europe/Stockholm

https://stockholmuniversity.zoom.us/j/530682073

https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.12166
The dynamic activity of the Sun, governed by its cycle of sunspots -- strongly magnetized regions that are observed on its surface -- modulate our solar system space environment creating space weather. Severe space weather leads to disruptions in satellite operations, telecommunications, electric power grids and air-traffic on polar routes. Forecasting the cycle of sunspots, however, has remained a challenging problem. We use reservoir computing -- a model-free, neural--network based machine-learning technique -- to forecast the upcoming solar cycle, sunspot cycle 25. The standard algorithm forecasts that solar cycle 25 is going to last about ten years, the maxima is going to appear in the year 2024 and the maximum number of sunspots is going to be 113 (±15). We also develop a novel variation of the standard algorithm whose forecasts for duration and peak timing matches that of the standard algorithm, but whose peak amplitude forecast is 124 (±2) -- within the upper bound of the standard reservoir computing algorithm. We conclude that sunspot cycle 25 is likely to be a weak, lower than average solar cycle, somewhat similar in strength to sunspot cycle 24.