1 November 2010 to 10 December 2010
Nordita
Europe/Stockholm timezone

Asymptotic distribution for the size of a near critical epidemic

6 Dec 2010, 11:00
45m
Nordita

Nordita

Speaker

Anders Martin-Löf (Stockholm University)

Description

The so called S-I-S model for the spread of an infection in a finite population is studied, and it is shown that there is a critical value of the infection rate below which the epidemic is small and above which it is large. Moreover, in the near critical case there is a critical scaling giving rise to a limit distribution for the size which can be calculated analytically with the help of Airy functions.

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