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Predictability + School on Data Assimilation
from
Tuesday, April 26, 2011 (9:00 AM)
to
Friday, May 27, 2011 (7:00 PM)
Monday, April 25, 2011
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Friday, April 29, 2011
Saturday, April 30, 2011
Sunday, May 1, 2011
Monday, May 2, 2011
10:30 AM
Adaptive Sampling: theory and applications
-
Sharan Majumdar
Adaptive Sampling: theory and applications
Sharan Majumdar
10:30 AM - 11:15 AM
Room: 132:028
(assumes knowledge of EnKFs and the basic concept of adjoints)
3:30 PM
Data assimilation of the solar cycle
-
Laurene Jouve
Mausumi Dikpati
A. Sacha Brun
Data assimilation of the solar cycle
Laurene Jouve
Mausumi Dikpati
A. Sacha Brun
3:30 PM - 4:30 PM
Room: 132:028
Tuesday, May 3, 2011
10:30 AM
Things they didn't tell you last week: DA in Maths, Physics, and Decision Support
-
Leonard Smith
Things they didn't tell you last week: DA in Maths, Physics, and Decision Support
Leonard Smith
10:30 AM - 10:50 AM
Room: 132:028
2:00 PM
Timescales and (in)predictability.
-
Yukio KANEDA
Linus MAGNUSSON
Olivier Talagrand
Timescales and (in)predictability.
Yukio KANEDA
Linus MAGNUSSON
Olivier Talagrand
2:00 PM - 3:00 PM
Room: 132:028
TALAGRAND: About timescales for assimilation. KANEDA: On the limits of predicting turbulence. MAGNUSSON: On estimates of predictability.
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
1:30 PM
Hurricane Predictability
-
Sharan MAJUMDAR
Hurricane Predictability
Sharan MAJUMDAR
1:30 PM - 1:50 PM
Room: 132:028
MAJUMDAR: Hurricane Predictability
Thursday, May 5, 2011
10:30 AM
Data assimilation with uncertain static parameters; or Why it is hard to calibrate dynamical models.
-
Jonathan ROUGIER
Data assimilation with uncertain static parameters; or Why it is hard to calibrate dynamical models.
Jonathan ROUGIER
10:30 AM - 10:50 AM
Room: 132:028
ROUGIER: Data assimilation with uncertain static parameters Abstract: Using the link between variational methods and maximum likelihood, I explore in a non-technical way the conditions under which data assimilation produces consistent estimators, and show that with a perfect model these conditions distinguish clearly between learning about the state vector and learning about the static parameters ('calibration'). Interestingly -- perhaps paradoxically -- the situation for calibration improves when the model is imperfect, and correctly modelled as such. These results are only a sketch in response to the discussions we have been having about imperfect models, and the pros and cons of stochastic models.
Friday, May 6, 2011
11:15 AM
Why are there zonal flows on Jupiter
-
Jonas Nycander
(
Dept. of Meteorology, Stockholm University
)
Why are there zonal flows on Jupiter
Jonas Nycander
(
Dept. of Meteorology, Stockholm University
)
11:15 AM - 12:05 PM
Room: 132:028
Saturday, May 7, 2011
Sunday, May 8, 2011
Monday, May 9, 2011
10:30 AM
Sequential variational method for data assimilation without tangent linear and adjoint model integrations
-
Srdjan DOBRICIC
Sequential variational method for data assimilation without tangent linear and adjoint model integrations
Srdjan DOBRICIC
10:30 AM - 11:30 AM
Room: 132:028
DOBRICIC: Sequential variational method for data assimilation without tangent linear and adjoint model integrations
1:30 PM
Does model resolution matter for climate predictions?
-
Shuting YANG
Does model resolution matter for climate predictions?
Shuting YANG
1:30 PM - 2:20 PM
Room: 132:028
YANG: Does model resolution matter for climate predictions?
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
1:30 PM
Systematic Strategies for Stochastic Climate Modeling
-
Christian Franzke
Systematic Strategies for Stochastic Climate Modeling
Christian Franzke
1:30 PM - 2:20 PM
Room: 132:028
FRANZKE: Systematic Strategies for Stochastic Climate Modeling The climate system has a wide range of temporal and spatial scales for important physical processes. Examples include convective activity with an hourly time scale, organized synoptic scale weather systems on a daily time scale, extra-tropical low-frequency variability on a time scale of 10 days to months, to decadal time scales of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. An understanding of the processes acting on different spatial and temporal scales is important since all these processes interact with each other due to the nonlinearities in the governing equations. Most of the current problems in understanding and predicting the climate system stem from the multi-scale nature of the climate system in that all of the above processes interact with each other and the neglect and/or misrepresentation of some of the processes lead to systematic biases of the resolved processes and uncertainties in the climate response. A better understanding of the multi-scale nature of the climate system will be crucial in making more accurate and reliable weather and climate predictions. In my presentation I will discuss systematic strategies to derive stochastic models for climate prediction. The stochastic mode reduction strategy accounts systematically for the effect of the unresolved degrees of freedom and predicts the functional form of the effective reduced equations. These procedures extend beyond simple Langevin equations with additive noise by predicting nonlinear effective equations with both additive and multiplicative (state-dependent) noises. The stochastic mode reduction strategy predicts rigorously closed form stochastic models for the slow variables in the limit of infinite separation of time-scales.
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
10:30 AM
Ensembles in Data Assimilation for Numerical Weather Prediction
-
Jelena Bojarova
Ensembles in Data Assimilation for Numerical Weather Prediction
Jelena Bojarova
10:30 AM - 11:20 AM
Room: 132:028
1:30 PM
The beginnings of data assimilation in geomagnetism
-
Andrew Jackson
The beginnings of data assimilation in geomagnetism
Andrew Jackson
1:30 PM - 2:20 PM
Room: 132:028
3:30 PM
Special Astrophysical Fluids Seminar: Some "Non"s in Turbulence -- Nonlinear, Nonlocal, Nonequilibrium
-
Yukio KANEDA
Special Astrophysical Fluids Seminar: Some "Non"s in Turbulence -- Nonlinear, Nonlocal, Nonequilibrium
Yukio KANEDA
3:30 PM - 4:20 PM
Room: 132:028
Thursday, May 12, 2011
Friday, May 13, 2011
2:00 PM
spontaneous discussion on practical 3DVAR implementation with some introductory remarks by Srdjan
spontaneous discussion on practical 3DVAR implementation with some introductory remarks by Srdjan
2:00 PM - 2:50 PM
Room: 132:028
Saturday, May 14, 2011
Sunday, May 15, 2011
Monday, May 16, 2011
10:30 AM
A Bayesian Hierarchical Modelling approach to quantify wind forcing uncertainties in ocean ensemble forecasting
-
Srdjan DOBRICIC
A Bayesian Hierarchical Modelling approach to quantify wind forcing uncertainties in ocean ensemble forecasting
Srdjan DOBRICIC
10:30 AM - 11:30 AM
Room: 132:028
DOBRICIC: A Bayesian Hierarchical Modelling approach to quantify wind forcing uncertainties in ocean ensemble forecasting
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
10:30 AM
Uncertainty in projections of climate change
-
Jouni Räisänen
Uncertainty in projections of climate change
Jouni Räisänen
10:30 AM - 11:20 AM
Room: 132:028
3:00 PM
Parameter esimation indistinguable states
-
Milena Cuellar
Parameter esimation indistinguable states
Milena Cuellar
3:00 PM - 3:50 PM
Room: 132:028
Cuellar: Parameter esimation indistinguable states
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
2:30 PM
Float trajectory assimilation in the Mediterranean forecasting system
-
Jenny Nilsson
Float trajectory assimilation in the Mediterranean forecasting system
Jenny Nilsson
2:30 PM - 2:50 PM
Room: 132:028
Thursday, May 19, 2011
10:30 AM
An operational 3-4D-Var - practical aspects including the hybrid var/ensemble approach and performance
-
Nils GUSTAFSSON
An operational 3-4D-Var - practical aspects including the hybrid var/ensemble approach and performance
Nils GUSTAFSSON
10:30 AM - 11:20 AM
Room: 132:028
Friday, May 20, 2011
10:30 AM
Sequential estimation as a dynamical systems problem, including parameter estimation
-
Michael Ghil
Sequential estimation as a dynamical systems problem, including parameter estimation
Michael Ghil
10:30 AM - 11:30 AM
Room: 132:028
1:00 PM
Rising carbon dioxide, a never ending story?
-
Ralph Keeling
Rising carbon dioxide, a never ending story?
Ralph Keeling
1:00 PM - 1:50 PM
Room: Aula Magna, Stockholm University
<a href=http://www.science.su.se/content/1/c6/09/61/19/Poster.pdf>Poster</a>
Saturday, May 21, 2011
Sunday, May 22, 2011
Monday, May 23, 2011
10:30 AM
Impact of stochastic perturbations on deterministic dynamical systems
-
Valerio LUCARINI
Impact of stochastic perturbations on deterministic dynamical systems
Valerio LUCARINI
10:30 AM - 11:20 AM
Room: 132:028
LUCARINI: Impact of stochastic perturbations on deterministic dynamical systems
1:30 PM
Informal discussion about solar irradiance variability etc
-
Michael Ghil
Informal discussion about solar irradiance variability etc
Michael Ghil
1:30 PM - 2:20 PM
Room: 132:028
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
1:00 PM
Nowcasting via Gradient Descent: Moving from Theory towards Reality
-
Hailiang Du
Nowcasting via Gradient Descent: Moving from Theory towards Reality
Hailiang Du
1:00 PM - 1:50 PM
Room: 132:028
3:00 PM
Thermodynamics of the climate system
-
Valerio Lucarini
Thermodynamics of the climate system
Valerio Lucarini
3:00 PM - 3:50 PM
Room: Room C609, 6th floor
http://www.misu.su.se/
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
1:30 PM
1:30 PM - 3:00 PM
Room: 132:028
Contributions
1:30 PM
Empirical model reduction and applications
-
Michael GHIL
2:15 PM
Tipping points: Early warning and wishful thinking
-
Peter DITLEVSEN
3:30 PM
3:30 PM - 6:00 PM
Room: 132:028
Contributions
3:30 PM
Parameter and state estimation nonlinear models
-
Milena CUELLAR
4:15 PM
Emulating the behaviour of a large climate simulator
-
Jonathan ROUGIER
5:00 PM
Can model weighting improve projections of climate change?
-
Jouni RäISäNEN
Thursday, May 26, 2011
9:00 AM
9:00 AM - 7:00 PM
Room: 132:028
Friday, May 27, 2011
9:00 AM
9:00 AM - 10:30 AM
Room: 132:028
Contributions
9:00 AM
Nowcasting via Gradient Descent: Moving from Theory towards Reality
-
Hailiang DU
9:45 AM
Data-based stochastic subgrid-scale parametrisation using cluster-weighted modelling.
-
Frank KWASNIOK
11:00 AM
11:00 AM - 2:00 PM
Room: 132:028
Contributions
11:00 AM
Nowcasting the solar cycle, using low dimensional models.
-
Andreas SVEDIN
11:45 AM
Decadal prediction initialisation using anomaly method
-
Mihaela CAIAN