Predicting the unpredictable is a challenge that is common to various physical systems whose dynamics is governed by the equations of ﬂuid dynamics. The oldest example is weather prediction and was developed since the 1950s by various people including the Norwegian meteorologist Ragnar Fjörtoft. Other examples include climate prediction, space weather forecast, and solar cycle forecast. The mathematics developed for these applications is extremely interesting and deserves more detailed understanding, so that these techniques can be used also in other areas where the application of this technique is less well developed.
A major difference between weather forecasting and climate or solar cycle forecasting is the long time scale and an additional shortage of diagnostic data. Climate models are also more complex and involve coupling between atmosphere and oceans. Solar cycle modeling, on the other hand, is still only at a rather exploratory level. It was only recently that a proper data assimilation method using the so-called Ensemble Kalman Filter to take into account uncertainties of dynamo model and measurements has been used for solar cycle prediction However, signiﬁcant progress is expected within the next few years.
→ link to graphical representation of participants (and click on "Predictability + School on Data Assimilation")
Registration deadline: 22 March 2011 (there is no registration fee)