Speaker
Bidya Binay Karak
(Department of Physics, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore)
Description
The irregular nature of the solar cycle makes the prediction of
future cycles
challenging. However, the prediction of the solar activity is
important for several
reasons. In the Babcock-Leighton dynamo models,
the poloidal field is generated near the solar surface whereas the
toroidal field is
generated near the base of the convection zone. Therefore a
finite time necessary for
the poloidal field to reach the base of the convection zone
introduces a memory in
the dynamo model which allows the dynamo model to predict the
future solar cycle. We
have shown that this predictability of the solar cycle is strongly
affected by the
inclusion of the downward turbulent pumping of the magnetic flux
which is unavoidable
in the convectively unstable solar convection zone. With a
significant turbulent
pumping in Babcock-Leighton dynamo models, a long term
prediction of the solar cycle
is impossible; only a short term prediction (of about 5 years) may
be possible.
Primary authors
Bidya Binay Karak
(Department of Physics, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore)
Dibyendu Nandy
(Indian Institute for Science Education and Research, Kolkata)
