8 April 2013 to 3 May 2013
Nordita
Europe/Stockholm timezone

Effect of the turbulent pumping of magnetic flux on the predictability of the solar cycle

26 Apr 2013, 14:00
1h
Nordita east (Nordita)

Nordita east

Nordita

Seminar

Speaker

Bidya Binay Karak (Department of Physics, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore)

Description

The irregular nature of the solar cycle makes the prediction of future cycles challenging. However, the prediction of the solar activity is important for several reasons. In the Babcock-Leighton dynamo models, the poloidal field is generated near the solar surface whereas the toroidal field is generated near the base of the convection zone. Therefore a finite time necessary for the poloidal field to reach the base of the convection zone introduces a memory in the dynamo model which allows the dynamo model to predict the future solar cycle. We have shown that this predictability of the solar cycle is strongly affected by the inclusion of the downward turbulent pumping of the magnetic flux which is unavoidable in the convectively unstable solar convection zone. With a significant turbulent pumping in Babcock-Leighton dynamo models, a long term prediction of the solar cycle is impossible; only a short term prediction (of about 5 years) may be possible.

Primary authors

Bidya Binay Karak (Department of Physics, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore) Dibyendu Nandy (Indian Institute for Science Education and Research, Kolkata)

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