OKC PROSPECTS Workshop

15 Sept 2010, 09:00 → 17 Sept 2010, 20:10 Europe/Stockholm

AlbaNova

PROSPECTS - PROblems in Statistical Parameter Estimation and ConsTraints for Supersymmetry

With a new energy frontier opening up we all want to be ready to set out on the road to discoveries. We know that along the way we will face hordes of data, the constraining shackles of statistical error bars and the nefarious plotting of systematic errors, we know we must endure the hardships of complicated parameter interdependencies. All this to perhaps, finally, reach the undiscovered country of New Physics.

The aim of this workshop is to investigate approaches to constraining the parameters of New Physics models with data from current collider and astrophysics experiments, with some emphasis on models with Supersymmetry. This is a field which has seen a lot of activity over the past few years, and our goal is to gather experts to discuss some of the issues involved in interpreting data and applying statistical methods. Furthermore, we want to have brief reviews of current methods and the tools available, and finally some PROSPECTS for the future.

Topics:

• Statistics & Algorithms (Talks on statistical methods and scanning algorithms)
• Packages & Codes (Presentations of available tools and recent tool developments)
• Experimental Constraints (Summaries of current and expected near-future experimental results)
• Phenomenology/Results (Updates on current parameter scans and their phenomenological consequences)

List of Invited Speakers:

• Ben Allanach (DAMTP, Cambridge)
• Geneviéve Bélanger (LAPTH, Annecy)
• Kyle Cranmer (New York University)
• Klaus Desch (Bonn)
• Joakim Edsjö (Stockholm)
• John Ellis (CERN)
• Michael Hobson (Cavendish, Cambridge)
• Tilman Plehn (Heidelberg)
• Roberto Ruiz de Austri (IFIC, Valencia)
• Roberto Trotta (Imperial College)
• Martin White (University of Melbourne)

The workshop will be a small-scale event with ample time for discussions. Note that there is no registration fee for the workshop, but there is a fee for those who wish to participate at the workshop dinner on Thursday the 16th of September.

Local Organizing Committee

A. Raklev (co-chair, Stockholm University), P. Scott (co-chair, Stockholm University), Y. Akrami (Stockholm University), J. Edsjö (Stockholm University), J. Conrad (Stockholm University), A. Putze (Stockholm University/KTH), J. Ripken (Stockholm University), C. Savage (Stockholm University).

Photos: J. Edsjö

Wednesday 15 September

09:00 → 10:00 Registration

10:00 → 12:00 Introductions - Chair: Are Raklev

10:00 Welcome - A. Raklev

Slides PROSPECTS_welcome.odp

10:10 About OKC - L. Bergström

Slides OKC-presentation_PROSPECTS_100915.pdf

10:25 Prospects for PROSPECTS - P. Scott

Slides PS_PROSPECTS^2.pdf

10:40 Coffee Break

11:10 The ABC of SUSY: Models, Parameters and Acronyms - M. Berg

I will give a pretty simple introduction to what the 124 parameters of the MSSM mean, and how they are constrained in a few well-known scenarios for underlying physics. I will also discuss additional (!) parameters that can also be included in scans, and could relate to experimental signatures not reachable with the first 124.

Slides PROSPECTStalk.pdf

12:00 → 14:00 Lunch Break

14:00 → 18:00 Physics Codes - Chair: Klaus Desch

14:00 DarkSUSY - J. Edsjö

Slides 100915-DarkSUSY-Prospects-web.pdf

14:50 SOFTSUSY: an update on MSSM spectrum calculation - B. Allanach

We shall describe how SOFTSUSY predicts the MSSM spectrum, giving levels of approximation. We shall detail what it can do, and give the limits of its functionality, as well as giving how it will be generalised in the near future. We shall briefly compare its features to other public MSSM spectrum generators.

Slides soft.pdf

15:40 Coffee Break

16:10 micrOMEGAs, latest developments - G. Belanger

micrOMEGAs is a code that computes the dark matter relic density, the elastic scattering cross sections of WIMPs on nuclei relevant for direct detection, the cross sections for dark matter annihilation into SM particles and the spectrum for photons, positrons and antiprotons, including the propagation of charged particles through the Galaxy. The cross sections and decay properties of new particles relevant for collider studies are also included together with various constraints from precision observables. micrOMEGAs includes several models of particle physics that predict a new stable weakly interacting neutral particle, the MSSM and several of its extensions, models with extra dimensions or the little Higgs model as well as facilities to incorporate new models.

Slides micromegas_stockholm.pdf

17:10 Incorporating Event Rates Into MSSM Parameter Determinations - B. O'LEARY

The LHC could provide many observables from which the parameters of the MSSM can be determined. Technical difficulties in accommodating experimental cuts as well as large theoretical uncertainties have led to absolute rates of SUSY signal events being ignored in favor of more easily-measured observables such as kinematic edges. In this talk, I present a code which calculates a fast approximation and how incorporating this into Fittino allows for more accurate determination of SUSY parameters with early LHC data, and how it could help the less optimistic scenario of determining accurate exclusion bounds should the first inverse femtobarn of 7 TeV LHC data show no clear signs of new physics.

Slides Incorporating_Event_Rates_Into_MSSM_Parameter_Determinations.pdf

Thursday 16 September

09:00 → 13:10 Statistics, Likelihoods & Algorithms - Chair: Ben Allanach

slides PROSPECTS_Yashar.pdf

09:00 Which statistical approach to SUSY phenomenology? - R. Trotta

Slides Trotta_Stockholm_Workshop_Sept_2010.pdf

09:50 Accelerated Bayesian inference: neural networks and nested sampling - M. Hobson

Bayesian inference methods are widely used to analyse observations in particle physics and cosmology, but they can be extremely computationally demanding. Recent work in this area has focussed on developing new methods for greatly accelerating such analyses, in particular by using neural networks and nested sampling methods. I will give a brief outline of these approaches, which are generic in nature, and illustrate their use in a cosmological case study.

Slides stockholm.pdf

10:40 Coffee Break

11:00 Publishing likelihoods with RooStats - K. Cranmer

Slides PROSPECTS_RooStats_Input_For_SUSY_Fits-16-09-10.pdf

11:50 Sampling of SUSY Models, Statistical Coverage and Genetic Algorithms - Y. Akrami

Slides PROSPECTS_Yashar.pdf

12:30 Panel Discussion on Statistical Inference - led by J. Conrad and R. Trotta

13:10 → 14:40 Lunch Break

14:40 → 18:40 Scanning Packages - Chair: Pat Scott

14:40 SuperBayeS - R. Ruiz de Austri

Slides rruiz_prospects.pdf

15:30 Sfitting - T. Plehn

Slides stockholm_10.pdf

16:20 Coffee Break

16:50 Determination of SUSY parameters with Fittino - K. Desch

Fittino is software package to determine constraints on the parameters of SUSY models from existing an future measurements. Theoretical predictions are provided by external codes interfaced through the SUSY Les Houches Accord. Parameter scanning and minima search is based on a global chi2 function which is minimized/scanned either through simulated annealing minimisation or Markov Chain MC techniques. In the talk I will introduce the functionality of Fittino, present selected results and give an outlook on future developments.

Slides desch_stockholm_160910.pdf

17:40 Panel Discussion on Scanning Packages - led by K. Desch, T. Plehn and R. Ruiz de Austri

19:30 → 22:00 Workshop Dinner

Directions:

http://kartor.eniro.se/query?what=map_adr&mop=aq&search_word=&geo_area=Valhallav%e4gen%2050%20Stockholm&lang=&pis=1&click_id=&tpl=&partner_id=&imgmode=

Friday 17 September

10:00 → 13:00 Experimental Constraints - Chair: Jan Conrad

10:00 IceCube in the context of dark matter searches - C. de los Heros

The construction of the IceCube neutrino observatory is practically terminated. With 79 strings taking data out of the 86 foreseen, we are one deployment season away from completion. I will review the capabilities of IceCube as a dark matter detector presenting results from searches for dark matter annihilations in the Sun, in the Galactic Center and in the Galactic Halo. Candidates considered are WIMPs in the MSSM and cMSSM scenarios, Kaluza-Klein modes and superheavy particles (Simpzillas). Discussions will be focused on the needed dialogue between experimenters and model builders so any side can use the work of the other to probe the predictions of given models.

10:30 Indirect detection, SUSY scans and application to Fermi data - P. Scott

Slides PS_FermiPROSPECTS.pdf

11:00 Coffee Break

11:30 Susy@LHC: to be or not to be? - J. Ellis

12:20 Direct Detection: Overview and Issues for SUSY Scans - C. Savage

Slides Chris.pdf

13:00 → 14:30 Lunch Break

14:30 → 17:00 Phenomenology & Results - Chair: Joakim Edsjö

14:30 SuperBayeS and HESS data - J. Ripken

Slides HESS_SB_Laptop.pdf

14:55 Bayesian Model Selection and Supersymmetry Breaking Mediation - M. Dolan

I will use Bayesian model selection and the Bayesian evidence to study the problem of selecting between different mechanisms of supersymmetry breaking using current data. I will present results regarding the minimal representatives from the gravity, gauge, anomaly and moduli mediated scenarios. Particular attention will be paid to the effect of the dark matter constraint and the sign of the mu parameter.

Slides Prospects.pdf

15:20 Case studies in LHC SUSY phenomenology - M. White

I will present some case studies of constraining SUSY parameter spaces based on hypothesised LHC data, including the impact on dark matter measurements should dark matter be a sparticle. Although the analyses use specific benchmark points, there are some more general ideas that indicate how to identify which sparticles have been observed at the LHC without guessing, and how to better constrain neutralino mixing parameters through a more inclusive use of the data.

Slides stockholm_White.pdf

15:45 Coffee Break

16:15 MCMC analysis of the MSSM with degenerate Higgs mass matrix - S. Fichet

Certain supersymmetric grand unified models predict that the coefficients of the quadratic terms in the MSSM Higgs potential should be degenerate at the GUT scale. We discuss some examples for such models, and we analyse the implications of this peculiar condition of a GUT-scale degenerate Higgs mass matrix for low-scale MSSM phenomenology. To this end we explore the parameter space which is consistent with existing experimental constraints by means of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis. This talk is based on arXiv:1007.0321 and JHEP 0908:011.

Slides FICHET_OKC_prospects2.pdf

16:40 MSSM toy example using indirect detection - A. Raklev

Slides PROSPECTS.odp

17:00 → 18:00 Discussion on Future Prospects and Strategies - led by B. Allanach, M. Berg and K. Cranmer

slides PROSPECTSpanel.pdf

18:30 → 19:30 Public Talk: Will Gauguin's Questions be answered by the Large Hadron Collider? - J. Ellis

Paul Gauguin's famous painting Where do we come
from? What are we? Where are we going? deals with
some of the most fundamental questions of the
Universe. Eminent CERN theoretician Professor John
Ellis explains how the Large Hadron Collider might
address Gauguin's questions as seen by particle
physics and cosmology.

In particle physics Gauguin's questions can be
interpreted as: What is the status of particle physics,
what may lie just beyond our current understanding of
it, and just what is the `Theory of Everything'? In
cosmology: What were the earliest stages of the
Universe like, what is it made of today, and what is its
future? Physicists at CERN's Large Hadron Collider in
Geneva are hoping to provide some of the answers in
the near future.

Professor Ellis earned his PhD in theoretical physics at
Cambridge University, and is an Elected Fellow of the
Royal Society of London. Ellis has many scientific
honours to his name, including the Maxwell Medal and
the Paul Dirac Prize from the Institute of Physics. He is
also an Honorary Doctor at Uppsala University.

poster JEllisPoster.pdf